Dutch Public Opinion and the EU

Wednesday the 17th of February 2010, the MA European Union Studies and the Montesquieu Institute welcomed mister Paul Dekker from the Social and Cultural Planning Office (SCP) in their joint European Seminar Lectures Series.

The SCP is well known and respected for its yearly publication European Outlook about public opinion in the Netherlands concerning European developments. There are several main characteristics of Dutch public opinion.
First, the Dutch think they are well informed about  the European Union;
Second, in reality they demonstrate in opinion polls that they are not well informed;
Third, there is in general broad support for Dutch membership of the EU. ”It is a fact of life”, ”The Netherlands cannot afford to stay outside”.
In the last years left wing people are somewhat more positive than right wing people; that seems amazing in view of the severe criticism on the EU for its neoliberal policies.  

After this introduction Paul Dekker spoke about some interesting new tools which are used by SCP lately.
In the first place a survey experiment in which after the first more general question, for example “Can Turkey become member of the EU”, follow-up questions are put with an “if-character”.  When in the first instance an interviewee says yes to Turkey’s membership and he is then confronted with the question: “if membership would make Islam through Turkish immigration more dominant in the streets would you still be in favour”?, only 33% would stick to their view. But later people tend to fall back to their first choice. 

Another new tool is the narrative method. Put a focus group (8 persons) together. Start a discussion, without laying hypotheses on the table, without asking questions. In the beginning the discussion goes fine but later on one will experience  that there exists, especially concerning Europe, a negative bias. Such talks tend to develop even  negative dynamics. The focus group, with different opinions at the start, will after a certain time come together in a solid front against certain developments. This is not necessary the case with each focus group but there is a tendency in these directions.